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Sounds like a wet dream for environmentalists but is completely unrealistic, especially as the cost of electricity rises in places like Ontario.
 

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Sounds like a wet dream for environmentalists but is completely unrealistic, especially as the cost of electricity rises in places like Ontario.
I agree for many other reasons its quite unrealistic, atleast in the time frame of 8 years. Having said that you do realize that the cost of Ontario electricity has nothing to do with the true cost of electricity.
 

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8 years is absurd.
"All fossil fuel vehicles.."...25 years at best.
I'm not seeing any electric 18 tractor trailers on the road at this time.

product lifecycles don't move that quickly.
at this point its still an early adopter novelty. then it has to become a niche. It then has to move to mainstream. after that it becomes dominant. Following that, its displaces its completion nearly entirely (fossil fuel).
theres still a lot of improvement that needs to happen. as well as perception to change- this might not be so hard...millennials aren't as car crazy as other generations. But theres also a lot of infrastructure changes required for refueling, repairs etc.
 

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I'll wait until there's an electric pickup truck. Puzzling to me why this is overlooked with the truck being the top selling vehicle for 40+ years.
Valid argument about payload compromises but there is a substantial segment of truck buyers who carry nothing more than a tonneau cover.
 

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I'll wait until there's an electric pickup truck. Puzzling to me why this is overlooked with the truck being the top selling vehicle for 40+ years.
Valid argument about payload compromises but there is a substantial segment of truck buyers who carry nothing more than a tonneau cover.
my hunch is, the issue is range.
pickup truck owners, at least the ones I know, drive greater distances, tow more etc than someone living in Paris, London etc and driving a Fiat 500.
I went for a drive in a friends Tesla. amazing car. But for fun, we entered into his roadmap, a trip from Toronto to Montreal. It required 2 re-fuellings and again upon arrival...adding significantly to the travel time. for many that would be unacceptable, esp if you live in rural areas or have long commutes.
I used to work with a couple, who now own 2 Teslas...they live in etobicoke (in Toronto), log about 8k kms each per year and take 2 trips per year to the family cottage. Its fine for them.

So I agree with your statement and IMO the flaw with the 8 year estimate...sounds like an ego centric city persons perspective.
 
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8 years? LOL

If everyone plugged their cars in at the same time, the grid would collapse. If 20% of the population plugged in at the same time (even at night, when traditional load is the lowest), the grid would collagse. Do you know how long it takes to add infrastructure to an electric grid? A lot more than 8 years. Maybe we can all get solar panels and charge in the middle of the day? Ooops, no, that won't work because that's when we need our cars.

Nice dream, but a pipe dream at this point. I would say though that battery tech is growing at a rapid pace. I've heard VW (and others) are very aware and concerned of upstarts like Tesla. It will happen, but the artificially cheap price we get fossil fuel for right now won't help the transition.

Remember, 40 years ago, we were only 30 years away from flying cars. I'm so happy that didn't happen - it seems most drivers can't operate in 2 dimensions, I hate to see what kind of havoc they would create in 3.
 

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Unless they make some sort of quantum leap in the technology it isn't going to happen in that time frame. The non fossil fueled car needs to have the range, quick refuel time and load carrying capacity that is BETTER than fossil fuel vehicles for them to take over. That means more than one technology and fuel source as I see it because of the variety of tasks the vehicles needs to perform.

An electric car would be fine for someone just scooting around the city (a solar charger would be bonus), but it isn't going to transport a load of steel or concrete to the job site for instance, or any of the other goods that move about the country, nor will it commute a family on their camping trip or vacation several hours away.
 

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Looking at a minor comparative it took digital photography over 40 years to where its pretty much replaced film. The first digital photograph was taken about 1975. it probably was only several years ago when film was completely replaced. Now there are probably only a very small percentage of niche film shooters. Photography had a alot less economical impacts on the economy that fossil fuel replacement will have.
The thing is, where are we in the development of electric cars. Maybe we're farther along than we think. Some feel that we could have had way more electric cars on the road if it weren't for political interference.
 

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Unless they make some sort of quantum leap in the technology it isn't going to happen in that time frame. The non fossil fueled car needs to have the range, quick refuel time and load carrying capacity that is BETTER than fossil fuel vehicles for them to take over. That means more than one technology and fuel source as I see it because of the variety of tasks the vehicles needs to perform.

An electric car would be fine for someone just scooting around the city (a solar charger would be bonus), but it isn't going to transport a load of steel or concrete to the job site for instance, or any of the other goods that move about the country, nor will it commute a family on their camping trip or vacation several hours away.
Do any of us really know where we are in the technology of electric cars. Computer technology advances every 18 months or so they say. How fast does battery technology advance? Right now the new Tesla S has a reported range of 335 miles on a single charge. Thats about 540 kanadian miles.
Maybe next year that will double. We have no idea what they have in the can that could be released soon. It would have to be something if they expect to power buses and trucks.
In reality I think that commercially fossil fuel vehicles could be around for another 100 years. But for us smaller vehicle drivers (even larger pickups) 8 years might be doable. Just wondering how the governments would replace the billions lost in fuel taxes.
 

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One of the glaring flaws in his argument:

"The cost per mile for EVs will be 6.8 cents, rendering petrol cars obsolete. Insurance costs will fall by 90 per cent. The average American household will save $5,600 per year by making the switch. The US government will lose $50 billion a year in fuel taxes. Britain’s exchequer will be hit pari passu."

Does he really think the govts of every country will continue to allow EV's free use of out roads, paid for at least partially by fuel taxes? That the US govt, fr'instance, will just abolish $50 billion in revenues? Wow, that's likely - NOT.

What will the cost pre mile of an EV be when they are 50% of the vehicles using our roads and having road taxes addes to their electricity costs? 20c / mile? 56 c / mile? Who knows, but it won't be free for ever. That's just a carrot to get the change to start.
 

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Even if the car industry could turn over to all electric cars in 8 years, (which they can't) There is no way in hell the world's electrical infrastructure can handle that many millions of cars being plugged in all the time. Oh, I work for a tier 1 supplier to the big three, and i already know what we are making for the next ten years. Lot's of gas guzzlers. And lot's of compacts and sub compacts, SUV's nothing has changed,
And that 6.8 cents per mile was obviously not going by Ontario Hydro rates.
 
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Yeah we're special. Our government allows us to pay much more than that.
oh come on now, it acting in our best interests...by weaning us off of the electric cars we don't have yet :)
 
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Do any of us really know where we are in the technology of electric cars. Computer technology advances every 18 months or so they say. How fast does battery technology advance? Right now the new Tesla S has a reported range of 335 miles on a single charge. Thats about 540 kanadian miles.
Maybe next year that will double. We have no idea what they have in the can that could be released soon. It would have to be something if they expect to power buses and trucks.
In reality I think that commercially fossil fuel vehicles could be around for another 100 years. But for us smaller vehicle drivers (even larger pickups) 8 years might be doable. Just wondering how the governments would replace the billions lost in fuel taxes.
Maybe the flood gates have opened, but historically, battery technology hasn't moved very fast. if anything, battery technology limitations have slowed down tech innovation.
part of the problem is making batteries not just powerful, but safe - remember those Samsung cell phones? this may be the one area (cars) where batteries have the advantage of other fuels. battery driven cars should be safer.
But battery technology cant really grow in stages the way chips can via Moores Law, new batteries are basically reinventions.
 
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So, people driving electric cars have cheaper insurance rates? I know a few people with EV's i will ask them about that
 
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