"It depends on who negotiates the separation."
2005fz1 said:
I can't see separation happening, Quebec has successfully played the "If you don't give me more - I won't play" card and we have all gone along. Based on the "Fraser Institute SIC List 1994" of the world's most severely indebted economies, an independent Quebec would be the 28th most severely indebted country in the world, with a government debt burden just behind Madagascar and just ahead of Jamaica. An independent Quebec would join the Third World in terms of its all-government indebtedness.... Furthermore, Newfoundland would cut the power off and Quebec would be in the Dark :tongue:
FZ1
If only it were that simple! Separation for Quebec is an emotional issue far more than a logical one. Tribalism (or ethnic nationalism) appeals most to the heart and not the brain. Who was it who said "Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel."? Societies are perfectly capable of making a stupid or disasterous choice. When you see all those old movies of Hitler speeches where the crowds are cheering madly, do you really think that whole country was faking it? Hell, less than a century and a half ago the North and South of the USA fought a bloody war over stupid choices.
Could the Rock cut off the hydro to a separate Quebec? A lawyer's dream! The deal was struck with a Quebec that was part of Canada. Would all such agreements be null and void with an independent Quebec?
This is the point that the modern Liberals and the BQ/PQ never want to talk about. They just mouth vague mutterings that "we need each other too much to be unreasonable about a separation deal". Only Trudeau ever had the courage as a national prime minister to tell Quebec "If you're out, then you're ALL the way out!" No Canada pensions, no EI, no nothing. If Quebec were to become independent, what would make them different to the rest of Canada than Mexico or Borneo? A common border? We have a border with the USA. Should we share federal money with them?
Some suggest that if a referendum choose sovereignity for Quebec that the rest of Canada would sign a fair deal out of respect for all the years we've lived beside each other. For "niceness", if you will. How likely is that? All the "English" provinces would likely feel just as emotional about a split as those Quebecois who chose to leave, only negatively so. Does anyone think that whichever party is in Ottawa at such a time could stay in power if it appeared to be nice to a Quebec that is leaving? It would be asking that party to commit political suicide! Tempers would be flaring everywhere outside Quebec and reason would be in scare supply.
Any divorcees reading this thread? How many of you went through an easy and painless divorce? Why would an independent Quebec be any different?
No, it is far more likely that things would get REAL ugly! Anglos outside of Quebec would demand that there be no "alimony" at all. Their politicians would have no choice but to agree if they wanted to keep their seats. A Duceppe would likely feel the need to "talk tough" and threaten to close the Trans Canada and isolate the Maritimes if Ottawa won't be reasonable. Danny Williams would get a photo-op of him standing by the Churchill Falls hydro switch.
Separatists in Quebec have historically been just as ignorant about how the rest of Canada feels as how well the rest of Canada has understood the feelings of a "Quebecois". The classic bonehead misconception is that just because they feel Canada to be English and French that any deal with Ottawa should be 50/50. The people in the other provinces have NEVER felt this way! They are each as proud of their own province as anyone in Quebec. They feel that Quebec should have no special powers than any other province. 50/50 is as unsupported by reason or evidence as the idea of a painless separation. They regard Quebec as one of 10 provinces, the same as themselves. A "Blocquiste" may argue the point but it doesn't matter. That's the way they feel and it's never going to change.
The Liberals in particular have been afraid to take a strong stand about the aftermath of a separation because they would immediately lose a whole bunch of Quebec seats in Parliament! With their abysmal lack of support in western Canada it is doubtful if they would have any serious shot at getting back in power for a hundred years or more. Any BQ/PQ leader would be wise not to expect his negotiating opponent in Ottawa to cheerfully give him a good or even fair deal if it meant asking that opponent to kiss his political ass goodbye forever...
As I said, it could get real ugly, real fast. I'd like to think that we would pull a Rodney King and all "just get along" but that comes from my heart. My head says my heart is an idiot, that all the reason and evidence points to the contrary.
Let's hope we never have to deal with the issue at all! Separatism seems to be becoming a bit of an old man's issue in Quebec, anyways. Perhaps that's why the separatists are feeling antsy about waiting any longer for another referendum.
