[Ronbeast]

Just a curious/hypothetical question. In the next 10, 20, 30+ years, where do you think the soaring vintage guitar (and amp) market will be?

Will it continue to climb? Will the market crash? None of the above?

Personally, and mostly just anecdotal speculation, I think we'll see the vintage market cool off in the next 10 to 20 years. I've met a lot of musicians in the 15-30 year old range who simply don't care about the vintage of their instruments; it's not so much owning a "59 les Paul" as it is owning "A les Paul" in general. It's something I've noticed a lot in younger musicians.

So what do you fine ladies and gentlemen think the future will hold for vintage gear?

 

[Budda]

I think vintage gear isnt too bad and im not sure how much of it will go up. People dont seem to pay a ton for things until it hits 60's era - and even then, it's not all crazy. The six figure gear will stay that way because the guys who buy it have the money. The working artist vintage gear will probably continue to slowly inflate, while modded gear continues to stay reasonable.

 

[Chito]

The issue really is, the sales of guitars are going down every year. Who will be buying all these guitars that we have all accumulated?

 

[Blind Dog]

Unless there's a revival of folk/blues, and some guitar slingers/gods don't reveal themselves in a timely fashion -- I fear prices for vintage guitars may have almost peaked, and may even decline. If people want to ensure a steady increase, we need to teach kids to play. What's a chamber pot, or wash stand worth these days? If the market doesn't use it, the prices will reflect that.

 

[bolero]

once the baby boomers have vanished, I don't think anyone will care as much for vintage anything

I predict the same for collectible muscle cars

 

[Budda]

once the baby boomers have vanished, I don't think anyone will care as much for vintage anything

I predict the same for collectible muscle cars

I don't know about that. I think a lot of people pass on their passion to their kids, their friend's kids, or their students.

 

[Wardo]

I have an 83 TA with a ZZ4 crate motor and lots of suspension mods and such that I'd trade for a D45 or something like that ...lol

 

[EchoWD40]

Going to die off. Most musicians care about playability and features rather than vintage value.

 

[vadsy]

Going to die off..

No it won't

 

[mhammer]

Some authorities have indicated that vintage prices have pretty much peaked.

At the same time, there are multiple "vintage markets". In the same way that the market for sales of homes in the $2M+ range (5 bedroom, 6 bathroom, 3-car garage and in-ground pool) is not the same as the market for 3-bedroom bungalows on small lots, or town-homes, the market for big-name guitars from "the golden era" (the kind that Steven Seagal would buy) is not the same as the market for guitars that get advertised on Kijiji as "vintage" because they were made before the high schooler selling them was born (for me, a '92 Strat is not "vintage").

There is also the factor of what the market can bear (e.g., the crash of 2008 left less money in the pockets of many who might have bought vintage gear), as well as one-off events that alter buyer interest. In the same way that the market was flooded with cheap used cars that had suffered water damage during hurricane Katrina, making many buyers a little bait-shy, the big flood in Nashville in 2010 resulted in a lot of instruments that had been stored in a large facility there suffering water damage, making some higher-end buyers a little skittish about spending top dollar on something that may need expensive restoration work. Stuff you can't predict will end up having an effect on "the market".

 

[Frenchy99]

I predict that I will still be buying stuff to the point were my wife might kick me out on my ass no matter what the F... happens in the futur !!! %h(*&

HNG^%$

 

[Blind Dog]

I have an 83 TA with a ZZ4 crate motor and lots of suspension mods and such that I'd trade for a D45 or something like that ...lol

My HD is going up for trade on kijiji (000, OM, Baby Collings 3) -- the '67 fb 340 Barracuda's left already.

Times change. Good luck with your trade.

 

[Smylight]

Many pundits, wiser than all of us ;-) have made the same predictions when Eddie hit the scene with his FrankenStrat. No shredding worshipper was expected to be willing to pay top dollar for a 59 Les Paul. Just sayin', they were worth at the most 10K$ at the time. Oh well...

 

[Adcandour]

TBH, I'm more curious about the gems among us.

Moving on...

Once Reverb.com has gathered enough information about gear sales, you will be able to speculate with a higher probability of being correct - even bank on it.

We're looking at the OP's question through the limitations of our experience. We think we have an idea, but we don't generally look at trends visually and can only take in so much (which is not enough). Who cares if you've seen 5 LPJs go for under $500? Not good enough.

I look at gear like the commodities market, and I'm certain it behaves the same way, because every commodity acts in a similar fashion.

Think of Fender Telecasters and Vintage TS808s as Silver and Feeder Cattle.

Here's an example. First 3 months actual sales went from about $800 to $1000. The median of $900 was hit about 4 months later. A weird blip and correction during March ($700 to $1100). Prce should hit median within 4 to 8months (how I play). It hits in 2 months. Lucky me.

Here's the same principle using Gold.

You see that big drop from $1800 to $1100? Well, I know a few people who will bet a lot of money that it will get close to $1450. It does in July and guess who made a shit-ton of money.

Don't worry. These assholes will also making it when the price is dropping too. You see that 6 month rise from that 11oo to $1400? I'm thinking it'll definitely get back around to $1250 soon enough.

I used to study 20 year charts as well. Super interesting (for a minute or two) when you can actually see how ALL the sales look.

Thankfully, only goofs would lose their houses selling Guitar gear.


I didn't think to go look at the Klon Centaur, but something tells me it'll just be the same shit.

 

[Wardo]

Times change. Good luck with your trade.

Thanks.

I got at least 20 grand into this pig but I ain't gonna see 10 cents on the dollar. Seems they all want LS conversions now.

Times changed and I've changed. .lol

 

[Adcandour]

I just did it with the Golden Klon. I had to map it out myself.

It seems that without a doubt if you buy it for $2K or under, some numb nuts will buy it off of you for over $4K.

 

[Frenchy99]

I just did it with the Golden Klon. I had to map it out myself.

It seems that without a doubt if you buy it for $2K or under, some numb nuts will buy it off of you for over $4K.

I ll give you $50.00 !!!

 

[Adcandour]

I ll give you $50.00 !!!

lowballers will be politely ignored...

 

[GuitarT]

I think it's already cooling off and will continue to do so in the years to come. Pre CBS Strats will always command a premium as will 1950's and 60's Gibsons but the rest of the market has peaked and will likely drop over time.

 

[NorlinNorm]

I think the Brand "Gibson specifically Les Paul" still has significance and will carry forward for a long time!!